Posted by Benji Riggins on August 25, 2011 under Insurance News | 
As Hurricane Irene, the ninth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, spins violently in the Bahamas, WSI (Weather Services International) has upped its tropical forecast to 18 named storms while admitting that amount may still be an underestimation.
Andover, Mass.-based WSI, a member of The Weather Channel Cos., released a forecast of 15 named storms in May. Its prediction for eight hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes (Category 3 or more) remains unchanged.
With nine named storms already this year, well before the midpoint of the season, WSI “had no choice but to increase our named storms forecast from 15 to 18—and the current pace suggests that even this number may be too low,” says Todd Crawford, WSI’s chief meteorologist.
Warmer-than-normal Atlantic water temperatures, very low surface pressures in the hurricane development region and no El Nino event all bode well for a “quite active” tropical activity, Crawford adds.
Crawford says the Gulf Coast is under the greatest threat for the remainder of the season, as “persistent atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic” that has prevented U.S. landfalls the past two years relaxes as September arrives.
“Our recent good fortune in avoiding land-falling hurricanes is not likely to last,” he says.
Posted by Benji Riggins on August 18, 2011 under Insurance News |
Federal storm watchers issued an updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook today, raising the number of expected named storms from its pre-season outlook issued in May.
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said they are more confident that 2011 will be an active Atlantic hurricane season. They now expect three to five of this season’s storms could turn into major Category 3 or above hurricanes, with winds of more than 110 miles per hour
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, updates its Atlantic hurricane season outlook every August.
“The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we’ve seen so far this season.”
Key climate factors predicted in May continue to support an active season. These include: the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions, leading to more active seasons; exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures (the third warmest on record); and the possible redevelopment of La Niña. Reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic also favor an active season.
Based on these conditions and on climate model forecasts, the confidence for an above-normal season has increased from 65 percent in May to 85 percent. Also, the expected number of named storms has increased from 12-18 in May to 14-19, and the expected number of hurricanes has increased from 6-10 in May to 7-10.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects, with a 70 percent probability, a total of:
14 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
7 to 10 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
These ranges are indicative of an active season, and extend well above the long-term seasonal averages of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
The Atlantic basin has already produced five tropical storms this season: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily. All eyes this week are on Emily, which continues to develop and move towards the United States.
The last hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Ike in 2008. Last year saw above-normal hurricane activity, but none made landfall in the United States.
August through October are peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season, and officials are urgings people not to be lured into a false sense of security by the lack of hurricanes so far this year.
Posted by Benji Riggins on April 12, 2011 under Insurance News |
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will be above average with nine hurricanes, five of them major, with a more than 70 percent chance that at least one of them will hit the U.S. coastline, Colorado State University forecasters predicted Wednesday.
Slightly reducing an early December forecast, the CSU team forecast an active June 1-Nov. 30 season, predicting 16 named storms.
Of these, nine were expected to turn into hurricanes, with five developing into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the five-step Saffir/Simpson scale.
The 2010 season spawned 19 named storms, tying for the third most active season with 1897 and 1995, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Of those storms, 12 became hurricanes, tying the second highest season of 1969. There were five major hurricanes in 2010.
The CSU team predicted a “72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2011,” adding that the long-term average probability of this was 52 percent.
“We expect that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, combined with neutral tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, will contribute to an active season,” Phil Klotzbach of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project stated,
“We have reduced our forecast slightly from early December due to a combination of recent ocean warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and recent cooling in the tropical Atlantic,” he pointed out.
(Reporting by Pascal Fletcher; Editing by John Picinich)
Posted by Benji Riggins on October 7, 2010 under Insurance News |
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has been very active in the number of storms but is likely to go down as a non-event for most people in the United States, which has so far dodged a major landfall, the top official U.S. hurricane forecaster said this week.
Before the June 1-Nov. 30 season got under way, residents of hurricane danger zones were warned by many forecasters they faced a very high probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline.
That has not happened and with the most active part of the season winding down in the next two weeks or so, the chances of a major impact on the U.S. mainland or on energy interests in the Gulf of Mexico are ebbing.
“If you just use (U.S.) landfall as a criteria and did not pay attention to the numbers, you’d think this was a really quiet year,” U.S. National Hurricane Center director Bill Read told Reuters.
“A couple of relatively minor impacts and some flooding and that’s what we’d have to show for it,” he said.
Read said 2010 was still likely to go down in the record books as another in a string of exceptionally busy seasons, however. The United States had just been very lucky in not getting hit by a major hurricane.
Hurricane Earl, which became a Category 4 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity, came the closest by approaching to about 100 miles off North Carolina and southern New England last month, Read said.
“That’s a relatively narrow escape if you look at it from the global perspective,” he said.
Read also noted that the 2010 Atlantic season had taken a high toll in flood and mudslide deaths in Central America and Mexico, meanwhile.
An average season produces about 10 storms, of which six become hurricanes. This year has seen 15 named storms so far, with Otto forming as a subtropical storm over the Western Atlantic Wednesday, but posing no immediate threat to land.
U.S. oil and gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico have been virtually unscathed by this year’s hurricane season, which posed an early threat to efforts to control and clean up oil spewing from the ruptured Gulf of Mexico well owned by BP Plc, which was the worst oil spill in U.S. history.
Read said the eastern portion of the Gulf and the Caribbean, along with southern Florida, were not totally out of the woods yet, however.
With sea surface temperatures still very high, conditions for storm or hurricane formation, especially over the Caribbean, remain favorable, Read said.
Tropical cyclones draw energy from warm sea water.
Read expressed particular concern for impoverished and nearly treeless Haiti, saying it had just been “an amazing stroke of good fortune” that the earthquake-ravaged nation had not been hit by a major storm so far this year.
“They’re so vulnerable, it wouldn’t take much to cause a crisis,” he said.
LANDFALLS TOUGH TO PREDICT
Though forecasters have cut their errors in predicting the track of a hurricane, Read said there were still problems in terms of their long-term “skill” in pointing to landfalls.
In June, for instance, leading U.S. forecasters at Colorado State University had said the chance a major hurricane would make a landfall on the U.S. coastline this year was 76 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent.
But Read said it was not surprising no major hurricanes had hit the U.S. coast directly, given global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.
“It’s highly dependent on where they form and the steering currents at the time,” Read said, when asked about the ability to predict landfalls.
“With the weather pattern that was in place and the fact that these (storms) formed so far out to the east, it’s not surprising that they turned off to the north,” he said.
“As soon as you find a weakness in the big high, the Bermuda-Azores high, you’ll get that effect. That’s why Igor and Danielle and Julia among others went straight north pretty much.”
The weather pattern known as La Nina was also a factor behind this year’s hurricane season, since it brought wind conditions that foster Atlantic hurricanes.
La Nina is a cooling of the sea surface in the tropical Pacific and has had an impact on global weather. It tends to reduce the shearing winds that can disrupt nascent storms in the Atlantic.
“In the eastern Pacific this will be one of the quietest seasons on record,” Read said. “That’s what you see in a La Nina pattern, a lessening of storms in the Pacific and a greater chance of storms in the Atlantic.”
By Tom Brown
October 7, 2010
(Editing by Pascal Fletcher and Eric Walsh)
Read more: http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/10/07/113880.htm#ixzz11hVMqJ5v
Posted by Benji Riggins on August 11, 2010 under Insurance News |
U.S. government scientists today reduced their forecast for the 2010 Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season but still foresee a very active year of eight to 12 hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said it now anticipates 14 to 20 tropical storms, with eight to 12 expected to strengthen into hurricanes.
Four to six of these storms are expected to become “major” hurricanes, which are defined as Category 3 or higher and can have winds of more than 110 mph.
In their previous forecast, NOAA had forecasted 14 to 23 tropical storms, with eight to 14 developing into hurricanes, and three to seven escalating into major hurricanes.
The revision comes as a result of a lower-than-expected number of storms during June and July.
So far, the 2010 season has seen just three tropical storms, with only one reaching hurricane strength.
According to Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane seasonal forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Season, “We’re still predicting a very active hurricane season, and it’s very important that people understand that.”
Posted by Benji Riggins on August 6, 2010 under Insurance News |
The Colorado State University forecasting team Wednesday maintained its 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast of 18 named tropical storms, 10 expected to become hurricanes. It predicted five of the hurricanes would be major, of Category 3 or greater.
The CSU team saw a 75 percent probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline.
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has been predicted to be very active, with one private forecaster, Weather Services International (WSI), foreseeing 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five intense hurricanes of Category 3 or greater. This is significantly above the long-term average taken between 1950-2009 which shows 10 named storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.
In addition to the risk that major hurricanes can pose to about one-quarter of U.S. oil production and more than a tenth of natural gas output offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, this year’s storms threaten to complicate efforts to address the environmental disaster of BP’s blown-out oil well.
Although the ruptured Macondo seabed well was provisionally capped in mid-July, halting the leak of oil from it into the Gulf of Mexico, storms could still disrupt ongoing efforts to ”kill” the well with a permanent plug.
All of the major forecasters see a much more active season than last year’s season, which was one of the quietest in a decade with just nine tropical storms.
There have already been three named storms this season, Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Alex, the season’s first hurricane so far, drenched the Texas-Mexico border on April 1 as it made landfall as a Category 2 storm.
The season is just approaching its traditional busy phase, which runs from mid-August to October.
Read more: http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/08/05/112214.htm#ixzz0vq1VrTzI
Posted by Benji Riggins on June 14, 2010 under Insurance News |
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be even more active than feared, leading U.S. forecasters said Wednesday as they predicted 10 hurricanes, five of them major, with a 76 percent likelihood that a major hurricane would hit the U.S. coastline.
The outlook from the Colorado State University team follows predictions by U.S. government scientists for an intense season that could disrupt efforts to contain a huge Gulf of Mexico oil spill and also batter earthquake-ravaged Haiti.
Increasing a previous estimate for a “very active” season, the leading CSU storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 18 named tropical storms.
Of these, CSU saw 10 becoming hurricanes, with five becoming major Category 3 or higher hurricanes with winds above 110 miles per hour.
The CSU scientists increased their forecast from an April 7 prediction of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
“The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 76 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent,” said forecaster Phil Klotzbach, who works with Gray.
The CSU team saw a 51 percent chance that a major hurricane would make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, and a 51 percent chance that one would hit the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas.
It put the chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean at 65 percent.
The expected extreme hurricane season this year is seen posing a threat to efforts to control and clean up oil spewing from a ruptured Gulf of Mexico well owned by BP Plc, described by President Barack Obama’s administration as the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history.
Experts warn that a storm surge in the Gulf of Mexico — an abnormal rise in sea level created by a hurricane — could whip the oil slick and chemicals used in trying to disperse it out of the Gulf and ashore on beaches, vegetation and even homes.
HAITI VULNERABLE
“If the storm tracks to the west of the oil, there is the potential that the counter-clockwise circulation of the hurricane could drive some of the oil further toward the U.S. Gulf Coast,” Klotzbach said.
But he added the forecasters did not see the huge, fragmented oil slick itself having much of an impact on any tropical storm or hurricane passing over the area.
There are fears too about how a major hurricane sweeping through the Caribbean over Haiti would affect around 1.5 million homeless survivors of the Jan. 12 earthquake who are camping out in the streets under tents and tarpaulins.
Quake survivors living in the makeshift camps are seen as highly vulnerable to the tropical rains, flooding and landslides which have killed thousands of Haitians in the past.
Detailing weather conditions seen favoring the formation of hurricanes, Gray said the CSU team increased its forecast “due to a combination of a transition from El Nino to current neutral conditions and the continuation of unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.”
Warmer waters contribute to the development of hurricanes and dissipation of the El Nino weather phenomenon over the Pacific Ocean reduces the probability of wind shear — caused by a clash between prevailing upper-levels winds out of the west and lower-level easterly winds out of Africa — that can tear apart hurricanes or break up their circulation.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week predicted one of the more active hurricane seasons on record, forecasting 14 to 23 named storms, with eight to 14 becoming hurricanes, nearly matching 2005′s record of 15.
The Gulf Coast may see a repeat of the 2005 season when a record 28 storms formed, which killed nearly 4,000 people and caused an estimated $130 billion in damages. The list included Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans.
By Pascal Fletcher
June 3, 2010
(Editing by Tom Brown and Mohammad Zargham)
Read more: http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/06/03/110405.htm#ixzz0pu01Qk26
