Posted by Benji Riggins on August 11, 2010 under Insurance News | 
U.S. government scientists today reduced their forecast for the 2010 Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season but still foresee a very active year of eight to 12 hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said it now anticipates 14 to 20 tropical storms, with eight to 12 expected to strengthen into hurricanes.
Four to six of these storms are expected to become “major” hurricanes, which are defined as Category 3 or higher and can have winds of more than 110 mph.
In their previous forecast, NOAA had forecasted 14 to 23 tropical storms, with eight to 14 developing into hurricanes, and three to seven escalating into major hurricanes.
The revision comes as a result of a lower-than-expected number of storms during June and July.
So far, the 2010 season has seen just three tropical storms, with only one reaching hurricane strength.
According to Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane seasonal forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Season, “We’re still predicting a very active hurricane season, and it’s very important that people understand that.”
Posted by Benji Riggins on August 6, 2010 under Insurance News |
The Colorado State University forecasting team Wednesday maintained its 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast of 18 named tropical storms, 10 expected to become hurricanes. It predicted five of the hurricanes would be major, of Category 3 or greater.
The CSU team saw a 75 percent probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline.
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has been predicted to be very active, with one private forecaster, Weather Services International (WSI), foreseeing 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five intense hurricanes of Category 3 or greater. This is significantly above the long-term average taken between 1950-2009 which shows 10 named storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.
In addition to the risk that major hurricanes can pose to about one-quarter of U.S. oil production and more than a tenth of natural gas output offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, this year’s storms threaten to complicate efforts to address the environmental disaster of BP’s blown-out oil well.
Although the ruptured Macondo seabed well was provisionally capped in mid-July, halting the leak of oil from it into the Gulf of Mexico, storms could still disrupt ongoing efforts to ”kill” the well with a permanent plug.
All of the major forecasters see a much more active season than last year’s season, which was one of the quietest in a decade with just nine tropical storms.
There have already been three named storms this season, Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Alex, the season’s first hurricane so far, drenched the Texas-Mexico border on April 1 as it made landfall as a Category 2 storm.
The season is just approaching its traditional busy phase, which runs from mid-August to October.
Read more: http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/08/05/112214.htm#ixzz0vq1VrTzI
Posted by Benji Riggins on July 13, 2010 under Insurance News |
An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:
14 to 23 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
8 to 14 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
3 to 7 could be major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”
The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
According to NOAA, the expected factors supporting this outlook are:
Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.
“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”
FEMA Ready
Meanwhile, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is urging residents to prepare.
“FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we’re prepared for hurricane season,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it’s important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can’t control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you’re ready.”
President Obama recently designated May 23 through 29 as National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA and FEMA encourage those living in hurricane-prone states to use this time to review their overall preparedness. More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at http://www.Ready.gov and http://www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
NOAA said its scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.
Read more: http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/05/27/110239.htm#ixzz0pu54dqxt
Posted by Benji Riggins on June 14, 2010 under Insurance News |
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be even more active than feared, leading U.S. forecasters said Wednesday as they predicted 10 hurricanes, five of them major, with a 76 percent likelihood that a major hurricane would hit the U.S. coastline.
The outlook from the Colorado State University team follows predictions by U.S. government scientists for an intense season that could disrupt efforts to contain a huge Gulf of Mexico oil spill and also batter earthquake-ravaged Haiti.
Increasing a previous estimate for a “very active” season, the leading CSU storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 18 named tropical storms.
Of these, CSU saw 10 becoming hurricanes, with five becoming major Category 3 or higher hurricanes with winds above 110 miles per hour.
The CSU scientists increased their forecast from an April 7 prediction of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
“The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 76 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent,” said forecaster Phil Klotzbach, who works with Gray.
The CSU team saw a 51 percent chance that a major hurricane would make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, and a 51 percent chance that one would hit the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas.
It put the chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean at 65 percent.
The expected extreme hurricane season this year is seen posing a threat to efforts to control and clean up oil spewing from a ruptured Gulf of Mexico well owned by BP Plc, described by President Barack Obama’s administration as the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history.
Experts warn that a storm surge in the Gulf of Mexico — an abnormal rise in sea level created by a hurricane — could whip the oil slick and chemicals used in trying to disperse it out of the Gulf and ashore on beaches, vegetation and even homes.
HAITI VULNERABLE
“If the storm tracks to the west of the oil, there is the potential that the counter-clockwise circulation of the hurricane could drive some of the oil further toward the U.S. Gulf Coast,” Klotzbach said.
But he added the forecasters did not see the huge, fragmented oil slick itself having much of an impact on any tropical storm or hurricane passing over the area.
There are fears too about how a major hurricane sweeping through the Caribbean over Haiti would affect around 1.5 million homeless survivors of the Jan. 12 earthquake who are camping out in the streets under tents and tarpaulins.
Quake survivors living in the makeshift camps are seen as highly vulnerable to the tropical rains, flooding and landslides which have killed thousands of Haitians in the past.
Detailing weather conditions seen favoring the formation of hurricanes, Gray said the CSU team increased its forecast “due to a combination of a transition from El Nino to current neutral conditions and the continuation of unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.”
Warmer waters contribute to the development of hurricanes and dissipation of the El Nino weather phenomenon over the Pacific Ocean reduces the probability of wind shear — caused by a clash between prevailing upper-levels winds out of the west and lower-level easterly winds out of Africa — that can tear apart hurricanes or break up their circulation.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week predicted one of the more active hurricane seasons on record, forecasting 14 to 23 named storms, with eight to 14 becoming hurricanes, nearly matching 2005’s record of 15.
The Gulf Coast may see a repeat of the 2005 season when a record 28 storms formed, which killed nearly 4,000 people and caused an estimated $130 billion in damages. The list included Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans.
By Pascal Fletcher
June 3, 2010
(Editing by Tom Brown and Mohammad Zargham)
Read more: http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/06/03/110405.htm#ixzz0pu01Qk26
